15% — Will Carlos Bruce win the 2026 Lima mayoral election
Kalshi 15% · 6 contracts · $600 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 22:50:08 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents market participants' assessment that Carlos Bruce has a 10% chance of winning the Lima mayoral election in 2026. The prediction reflects a crowded field where multiple candidates hold similar probabilities: Francis Allison and Carlos Bruce are each priced at 14 cents, Daniel Urresti at 13 cents, while Yehude Simon and Alberto Tejada trade lower at 6 cents. Bruce's position suggests moderate viability but faces significant competition. The probability could shift based on candidate campaign performance, endorsements, polling data, and Peru's shifting political dynamics. The election itself will resolve this market by determining the actual winner among the declared candidates. Current low trading volumes across all contracts indicate limited recent market activity around this race.

Key factors:
- Five candidates cluster between 6-14 cents, indicating substantial uncertainty and no clear frontrunner in market pricing
- Bruce is priced identically (14 cents) to Francis Allison and only 1 cent above Daniel Urresti, suggesting marginal differentiation among top contenders
- Yehude Simon, a former prime minister, trades at only 6 cents despite prior political experience, indicating either market skepticism about his candidacy or preference for other candidates
- Trading volume is minimal or zero across all Lima mayoral contracts, suggesting limited information flow and analyst engagement with this specific race
- The 2026 Lima election occurs in Peru's volatile political environment where recent mayoral races have produced variable outcomes and shifting voter preferences

Contracts:
- Will Carlos Bruce win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Carlos Bruce — 35¢ Kalshi $600 (weight 100%)
- Will Daniel Urresti win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Daniel Urresti — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Francis Allison win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Francis Allison — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Rafael López Aliaga — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Samuel Daza win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Samuel Daza — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Susel Paredes win the 2026 Lima mayoral election?: Susel Paredes — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:52.552Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/limamayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Carlos%20Bruce%20win%20the%202026%20Lima%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev