9% — Will Angelista and Aidan win Love Island UK Season 13 Kalshi 9% · 13 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:27 UTC Why this matters: This represents the likelihood that Angelista and Aidan finish Love Island UK Season 13 as the winning couple and are selected by the public vote. At 6%, this reflects a relatively low probability among the show's contestants, suggesting either they have recently entered the villa, faced elimination risk, or experienced relationship instability compared to other pairings. The main drivers of this probability are viewer engagement patterns and betting market sentiment tied to contestant narrative arcs—couples with dramatic storylines or strong audience connection typically command higher odds. The probability will shift substantially as the show progresses toward its finale, when the public voting mechanism becomes the decisive factor. Key milestones include coupling ceremonies (which can separate or reunite pairs) and dramatic villa developments that shift audience favorability. The resolution occurs at the finale when voting results are announced and the winning couple is declared. Key factors: - Angelista and Aidan's current coupling status and whether they remain together through successive coupling ceremonies - Comparative betting odds for other couples suggest market participants view multiple pairings as more likely winners, indicating relative weakness in this couple's narrative positioning - Public sentiment and social media engagement levels for this specific pairing versus competitors, which historically correlates with voting outcomes - Whether either contestant has experienced elimination threats, re-coupling disruptions, or audience backlash that could affect their survival to the finale - The remaining number of episodes until the finale and typical timing of major villa events that reshape couple dynamics and viewer perception Contracts: - Will Ellie and Finley win Love Island UK Season 13?: Ellie and Finley — 7¢ Kalshi $527 (weight 51%) - Will Lola and Sean win Love Island UK Season 13?: Lola and Sean — 14¢ Kalshi $323 (weight 31%) - Will Jasmine and Lorenzo win Love Island UK Season 13?: Jasmine and Lorenzo — 16¢ Kalshi $182 (weight 18%) - Will Jasmine and Kavan win Love Island UK Season 13?: Jasmine and Kavan — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Angelista and Chidi win Love Island UK Season 13?: Angelista and Chidi — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Angelista and Finley win Love Island UK Season 13?: Angelista and Finley — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Angelista and Kavan win Love Island UK Season 13?: Angelista and Kavan — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Angelista and Ope win Love Island UK Season 13?: Angelista and Ope — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.819Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/liukcouple Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Angelista%20and%20Aidan%20win%20Love%20Island%20UK%20Season%2013 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev