13% — Will Samraj win Love Island UK Season 13 Kalshi 13% · 14 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:26 UTC Why this matters: Samraj is priced at a 14% chance of winning Love Island UK Season 13, meaning market participants assess a roughly 1-in-7 probability he finishes as the winning couple. This probability reflects early-season positioning among a competitive field where frontrunners like Ellie (23¢), Angelista (18¢), and Robyn (20¢) command higher odds. Samraj's position suggests he faces stronger competition or market participants perceive lower romantic compatibility or viewer support relative to leading contenders. The probability would shift based on viewer voting patterns, on-screen relationship development, coupling dynamics, and public sentiment expressed through betting activity. Resolution occurs when the season finale airs and a winner is crowned—the timing determines whether current odds reflect informed early positioning or outdated information. Key factors: - Samraj's current odds rank behind at least three other contestants, indicating market consensus views him as a secondary contender rather than a favorite - The 14% probability implies roughly 86% of market likelihood is distributed among other contestants, suggesting relatively concentrated backing for specific alternatives - Trading volume on Samraj contracts relative to frontrunners would indicate whether low odds reflect genuine low expected value or thin liquidity - Coupling decisions and viewer voting patterns during broadcast episodes directly influence odds movements and resolve uncertainty - Samraj's price positioning relative to Ope (14¢) and Aidan (13¢) shows tight clustering among mid-tier contestants, suggesting marginal differentiation in market assessment Contracts: - Will Aidan win Love Island UK Season 13?: Aidan — 6¢ Kalshi $516 (weight 35%) - Will Ellie win Love Island UK Season 13?: Ellie — 37¢ Kalshi $370 (weight 25%) - Will Priya win Love Island UK Season 13?: Priya — 8¢ Kalshi $292 (weight 20%) - Will Sean win Love Island UK Season 13?: Sean — 16¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 6%) - Will Lola win Love Island UK Season 13?: Lola — 16¢ Kalshi $89 (weight 6%) - Will Mica win Love Island UK Season 13?: Mica — 8¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 4%) - Will Jasmine win Love Island UK Season 13?: Jasmine — 19¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 3%) - Will Lorenzo win Love Island UK Season 13?: Lorenzo — 19¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 1%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.620Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/liukwinners Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Samraj%20win%20Love%20Island%20UK%20Season%2013 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev