82% — LIV Golf Virginia
Leader: Will Lucas Herbert finish top 5?: Lucas Herbert at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 17 contracts · $177 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:09:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects market expectations that Jon Rahm will finish in the top 5 at the LIV Golf event in Virginia. At 55%, traders are pricing Rahm as a slight favorite among the field, though far from a dominant position. His price reflects his professional track record and recent form, balanced against field strength and course-specific variables. The market will adjust based on pre-tournament practice rounds, any injury updates, and final field confirmation. The event resolution occurs when the tournament concludes and final leaderboard positions are determined. Bryson DeChambeau's 33% contract suggests meaningful competition for top-5 finishes, while other team members trade substantially lower, indicating concentrated expectations among a few competitors.

Key factors:
- Jon Rahm's recent performance metrics and world ranking relative to the full tournament field
- Course history and statistical fit between Rahm's playing style and Virginia course setup
- Real-time injury reports or schedule changes between now and tournament tee time
- Relative performance of top competitors, particularly DeChambeau (33¢) and other named contenders in practice rounds
- Field depth and whether typical top-5 finishers are absent or competing at reduced capacity

Contracts:
- LIV Golf Virginia: Will Lucas Herbert finish top 5?: Lucas Herbert — 82¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 7%)
- LIV Golf Virginia: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?: Jon Rahm — 52¢ Kalshi $103 (weight 58%)
- LIV Golf Virginia: Will Richard Bland finish top 5?: Richard Bland — 44¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 1%)
- LIV Golf Virginia: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 5?: Joaquin Niemann — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- LIV Golf Virginia: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?: Tyrrell Hatton — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- LIV Golf Virginia: Will Charles Howell III finish top 5?: Charles Howell III — 16¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 3%)
- LIV Golf Virginia: Will Cameron Tringale finish top 5?: Cameron Tringale — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- LIV Golf Virginia: Will Dustin Johnson finish top 5?: Dustin Johnson — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 9 more

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/livtop5
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=LIV%20Golf%20Virginia
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev