16% — Tigres de Quintana Roo vs Leones de Yucatan winner Kalshi 16% · 20 contracts · $19 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 22:04:20 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects an assessment that Tigres de Quintana Roo has only a 3% chance of defeating Leones de Yucatan in their matchup. The probability is based on limited trading activity across 16 Kalshi contracts, suggesting low market confidence or interest in this particular game outcome. The level implies strong market expectations favoring Leones de Yucatan or significant uncertainty about team performance. Resolution depends on the scheduled game result. Key drivers of this low probability would include historical head-to-head performance, current team standings in the Mexican League system, recent form and injury status, and home-field advantage considerations. Any major roster changes, recent winning streaks, or shifts in team dynamics before the match could alter the probability upward. The limited trading volume ($5 maximum 24-hour volume across top contracts) indicates this remains a relatively niche market with potential for wider price swings if trading increases. Key factors: - Limited trading activity (16 total contracts, max $5 24h volume) suggests low market participation and potential pricing inefficiency - The 3% probability implies market participants heavily favor Leones de Yucatan, suggesting significant historical or current performance disparities - No recent contract data provided about game date or team standings, making it unclear if this reflects pre-season expectations or imminent matchup analysis - Kalshi contract pricing at 5¢ across multiple outcomes indicates uniform market skepticism rather than strong conviction in any single outcome - Absence of volume on some comparable contracts (Sultanes vs Tecolotes Monterrey side at $0 volume) suggests broader engagement challenges in Mexican League betting Contracts: - Charros de Jalisco vs Rieleros de Aguascalientes winner?: Charros de Jalisco — 25¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 59%) - Charros de Jalisco vs Rieleros de Aguascalientes winner?: Charros de Jalisco — 18¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 30%) - Tecolotes de Los Dos Laredos vs Toros de Tijuana winner?: Toros de Tijuana — 3¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 11%) - Tecolotes de Los Dos Laredos vs Toros de Tijuana winner?: Tecolotes de Los Dos Laredos — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Diablos Rojos Del Mexico vs Tigres de Quintana Roo winner?: Diablos Rojos Del Mexico — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Diablos Rojos Del Mexico vs Tigres de Quintana Roo winner?: Tigres de Quintana Roo — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - El Aguila de Veracruz vs Pericos de Puebla winner?: El Aguila de Veracruz — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - El Aguila de Veracruz vs Pericos de Puebla winner?: Pericos de Puebla — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T21:20:51.857Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lmbgame Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Tigres%20de%20Quintana%20Roo%20vs%20Leones%20de%20Yucatan%20winner Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev