77% — Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 30 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026
Leader: Above 30 at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 3 contracts · $63 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:15:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing the likelihood that Lockheed Martin will deliver more than 30 F-35 fighter jets during the third quarter of 2026. The 97% probability reflects strong confidence in a relatively modest delivery threshold. Historical production rates and existing supply-chain dynamics support this baseline expectation, though the market shows declining confidence as thresholds rise—only 3% probability is assigned to deliveries exceeding 55 units. The key uncertainty centers on production bottlenecks, supplier delays, and customer acceptance timelines, all of which could compress quarterly output. Resolution will occur when Lockheed Martin reports official Q3 2026 earnings and delivery figures, typically in late October or early November 2026. Markets assign only 12% probability to the >50 threshold, suggesting participants expect the company to cluster deliveries between 20 and 40 units for the quarter.

Key factors:
- Historical Lockheed Martin F-35 quarterly deliveries and trend trajectory through 2025 and early 2026
- Current supply-chain status for major subsystems (engines, radar, fuselages) and known delays or acceleration
- Customer acceptance and funding availability across international and U.S. defense departments for Q3 intake
- Production capacity utilization and labor availability at Fort Worth and subcontractor facilities
- Scheduled maintenance downtime or known quality reviews that could impact Q3 output

Contracts:
- Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 30 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 30 — 77¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 19%)
- Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 45 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 45 — 23¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 81%)
- Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 50 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 50 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T21:20:51.559Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lmt
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lockheed%20Martin%20Corporation%20report%20Above%2030%20f-35%20aircraft%20deliveries%20in%20Q3%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev