69% — Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 110 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026 Leader: Above 123 thousand at 69% · Kalshi 69% · 10 contracts · $2 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 12:59:56 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: The market assigns a 97% probability that Lockheed Martin will deliver more than 110 F-35 aircraft during fiscal year 2026. This reflects confidence in sustained production rates, though volumes remain below the higher thresholds of 125 or 170 units. The primary drivers are Lockheed's demonstrated F-35 manufacturing capacity and multi-year contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and international partners, balanced against potential constraints from supply chain disruptions, workforce availability, or engineering delays. The resolution hinges on Lockheed Martin's Q4 2026 earnings report, typically released in early 2027, when the company will disclose final delivery figures for the fiscal year. Current market pricing shows high confidence in clearing 100 units but declining odds at higher delivery levels, suggesting consensus around 110-125 deliveries rather than the 170-unit scenario. Key factors: - Lockheed Martin delivered 156 F-35s in FY2024 according to public reports, establishing recent baseline capacity above the 110-unit threshold - Supply chain constraints for engine components and advanced materials have impacted aerospace production industry-wide in 2024-2025 - U.S. and allied government F-35 procurement schedules are contractually committed through 2026, creating demand certainty - Production rates depend on workforce staffing levels and facility utilization at Fort Worth, Texas and partner sites - Resolution occurs with FY2026 earnings disclosure (expected early 2027), providing definitive delivery count Contracts: - Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 123 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 123 thousand — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 130 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 130 — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 140 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 140 — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 124 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 124 thousand — 46¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 100%) - Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 125 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 125 thousand — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 150 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 150 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 119 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 119 thousand — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 126 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 126 thousand — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T11:20:53.123Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lmta Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lockheed%20Martin%20Corporation%20report%20Above%20110%20f-35%20aircraft%20deliveries%20in%20fiscal%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev