94% — Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 2% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026
Leader: Above 1% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 7 contracts · $128 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 18:13:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects traders' assessment that Loblaw Companies Limited's food retail division will achieve same-store sales growth exceeding 2% during 2026. The 80-cent contract price indicates roughly 80% confidence in this outcome. The current market structure shows strong conviction around 1.5% growth being exceeded (96¢), but declining confidence at higher thresholds—only 15¢ for above 3%, suggesting material uncertainty about strong acceleration. Loblaw's final 2026 same-store sales results, typically reported in early 2027, will resolve this. Key drivers include Canadian consumer spending patterns, competitive pricing pressure in grocery retail, and inflation's effect on comparable-period calculations. The gap between the 1.5% and 2% contract prices suggests the marginal 0.5% range is where meaningful debate occurs.

Key factors:
- Loblaw's comparable-store sales growth rate in H1 2026 relative to the prior-year period, as this establishes the trajectory heading into year-end
- Canadian grocery market competition and any market share shifts between Loblaw, Metro, and other retailers during 2026
- Consumer spending and inflation trends through 2026, which affect both basket growth and year-over-year price comparisons
- Loblaw's promotional activity and pricing strategy relative to competitors, which influences transaction volumes and per-unit growth
- Official 2026 full-year same-store sales reporting (expected Q1 2027), which will definitively resolve the outcome

Contracts:
- Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 1% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 1% — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 1.5% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 1.5% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 2% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 2% — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 2.5% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 2.5% — 46¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 29%)
- Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 3% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 3% — 20¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 19%)
- Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 3.5% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 3.5% — 7¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 52%)
- Will Loblaw Companies Limited report Above 4% food retail same-store sales growth in 2026?: Above 4% — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T17:20:51.905Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/loba
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Loblaw%20Companies%20Limited%20report%20Above%202%25%20food%20retail%20same-store%20sales%20growth%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev