15% — LoL
Kalshi 15% · 7 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents how likely a specific outcome is across 20 different League of Legends related contracts, with the leading outcome priced at 64%. The market reflects significant uncertainty, as the runner-up sits only 1 percentage point lower at 63%, indicating competitive odds across multiple scenarios. Factors driving the current level include recent tournament performance data, roster changes, patch updates, and regional strength assessments. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty would be upcoming official League competition results or announcements—likely scheduled matches or tournament brackets that determine which outcome materializes. Movement in these prices typically follows concrete competitive events rather than speculation, as each contract tracks a distinct resolution condition tied to verifiable League of Legends outcomes.

Key factors:
- The top two outcomes differ by only 1 percentage point (64% vs 63%), indicating the market hasn't settled on a clear frontrunner despite 20 contracts competing
- No contracts are currently bound to orders, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential price stability or illiquidity
- Resolution depends on specific League of Legends competitive events with known schedules and verifiable outcomes
- Polymarket contracts show an average of 39% across all 20 outcomes, indicating probabilities are distributed rather than concentrated on one scenario
- Tournament patches, roster announcements, or regional qualifier results would likely shift market prices materially

Contracts:
- Will G2 Esports win League of Legends MSI?: G2 Esports — 5¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 36%)
- Will T1 win League of Legends MSI?: T1 — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%)
- Will Hanwha Life Esports win League of Legends MSI?: Hanwha Life Esports — 36¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 13%)
- Will LYON win League of Legends MSI?: LYON — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win League of Legends MSI?: Bilibili Gaming — 27¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)
- Will Top Esports win League of Legends MSI?: Top Esports — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%)
- Will Karmine Corp win League of Legends MSI?: Karmine Corp — 3¢ Kalshi $53 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:50.030Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lol
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=LoL
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev