49% — Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026
Kalshi 49% · 2 contracts · $774 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-25 04:01:48 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability estimates the likelihood that more than six House Democrats will lose their primary elections in 2026. Primary losses typically occur when incumbents face strong challenges from within their party—often driven by ideological differences, redistricting changes, or local political dynamics. Currently trading at 46%, this reflects meaningful uncertainty about Democratic primary competitiveness. The outcome depends largely on the intensity of intra-party challenges, which can shift based on candidate recruitment, spending patterns, and emerging local controversies. Primary elections will occur throughout 2026, with results accumulating from early spring contests through summer. The final resolution will depend on counting all losses across state primaries and whether the total exceeds six.

Key factors:
- Historical baseline: Democrats averaged 2-4 House primary losses in recent cycles, so exceeding six represents a substantial uptick requiring notable change in party dynamics
- Redistricting effects from 2022 created new competitive primaries in some districts; how many feature serious intra-party challenges will be observable by mid-2026
- Incumbent retirement patterns: higher voluntary departures reduce primary contests, while crowded fields with sitting members increase loss likelihood
- National polarization intensity and whether specific policy divides (fiscal, foreign policy, social issues) drive coordinated primary challenges against sitting members
- Campaign finance and outside spending patterns: significant investment in primary challenges against Democrats would be visible in FEC filings by summer 2026

Contracts:
- Will more than 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 7 or more — 94¢ Kalshi $770 (weight 100%)
- Will exactly 6 House Democratic members lose their primary in 2026?: 6 — 3¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-18T19:20:52.124Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/loseprimaryhoused
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20more%20than%206%20House%20Democratic%20members%20lose%20their%20primary%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev