20% — Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026 Kalshi 20% · 4 contracts · $251 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:32 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance that more than 6 House Republicans will be defeated in primary elections during the 2026 cycle. Primary losses among majority-party members typically occur when sitting members face strong challengers from their own party, often due to ideological divides, redistricting changes, or anti-incumbent sentiment. The 16% probability suggests markets view this as unlikely but plausible. Primary elections occur at varying dates through summer 2026, with early contests already underway in some states and major primaries scheduled through August. The outcome depends on factors including the strength of challenger recruitment within Republican ranks, the degree of party fragmentation over key policy issues, and whether any high-profile incumbent vulnerabilities emerge. Historical context shows that 6+ primary losses for the majority party in a single cycle is relatively rare, which partly explains the low current probability. Key factors: - Primary election schedule and results through August 2026, with early-state contests in March-May determining baseline primary competitiveness - Number and quality of primary challengers recruited against sitting House Republicans, particularly those in competitive general seats or with controversial records - Degree of intra-party conflict within the House Republican conference, including any formal challenge networks or ideological factional organizing - Redistricting effects and demographic changes in individual districts that could unexpectedly shift primary electorates favoring challengers - Historical trend data: the number of House majority-party primary losses in 2018 and 2022 cycles as baseline comparisons for 2026 Contracts: - Will exactly 5 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 5 — 8¢ Kalshi $190 (weight 76%) - Will exactly 3 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 3 — 20¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 15%) - Will exactly 4 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 4 — 42¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 7%) - Will more than 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?: 7 or more — 11¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 3%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.980Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/loseprimaryhouser Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20more%20than%206%20House%20Republican%20members%20lose%20their%20primary%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev