77% — Will exactly 0 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026 Leader: Exactly 0 at 77% · Kalshi 77% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:35 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability measures whether zero incumbent Senate Democrats will lose general elections in 2026. At 72%, the market implies it is significantly more likely that at least one Democrat will be defeated than that all will survive. The current probability reflects that Democrats hold 51 seats and face a favorable electoral map in 2026, with relatively few competitive races where incumbents are particularly vulnerable. The main downside risks are unexpected recruitment of strong Republican challengers in key states, deterioration of Democratic candidate quality, or major shifts in national political conditions that tighten races. The resolution will depend on general election results in November 2026, making overall Republican performance and state-level dynamics the primary drivers of movement between now and then. Key factors: - The 2026 Senate map favors Democrats with fewer seats in play and limited high-quality Republican pickup opportunities - Current polling and historical incumbency advantage suggest most Democratic incumbents would survive even in a moderately unfavorable environment - Republican primary outcomes and final candidate selection (note: 29-40% pricing on exact Republican primary loss counts) will influence competitive intensity in general elections - Economic conditions and presidential approval in fall 2026 will shape overall electoral environment and potentially expose previously safe Democrats - Early candidate recruitment and fundraising patterns through summer 2026 will signal which races may become genuinely competitive Contracts: - Will exactly 0 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 0 — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will exactly 1 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 1 — 8¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 82%) - Will exactly 2 Senate Democrats lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 2 — 3¢ Kalshi $215 (weight 18%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.789Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "77% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/losereelectiondsen Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20exactly%200%20Senate%20Democrats%20lose%20re-election%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev