50% — Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026
Leader: Exactly 1 at 50% · Kalshi 50% · 4 contracts · $11 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 11:38:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract predicts whether five or more U.S. governors will lose re-election bids in 2026, currently assigned 10% probability by markets. Gubernatorial incumbent re-election rates typically exceed 90%, so the baseline expectation is that most sitting governors retain office. The current low probability reflects historical patterns where large-scale governor defeats remain uncommon, though this can shift based on economic conditions, scandal, or significant shifts in state-level sentiment. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the November 2026 general election, when 36 governorships are up for election. Market prices suggest traders expect 1-2 governors to lose rather than 5 or more, though this could change materially if major political upheaval or economic downturn occurs between now and Election Day.

Key factors:
- Historical incumbent re-election rates for governors exceed 88% in typical cycles, making five or more defeats statistically uncommon without major disruption
- 36 governorships are contested in 2026, with roughly 26 sitting governors seeking re-election, establishing the maximum pool of potential defeats
- Economic conditions and approval ratings between August 2026 and November 2026 will directly influence incumbent vulnerability, as recessions or scandals historically increase defeat rates
- The contract implies markets expect 0-1 governors to lose; closing the gap to 5+ would require unexpected structural shifts in multiple state races simultaneously
- No major scandals or economic crises have yet emerged in the sitting governor cohort as of August 2026, supporting continued low probability absent new developments

Contracts:
- Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 1 — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 2 — 18¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%)
- Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 3 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will exactly 4 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 4 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-07T11:21:03.002Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/losereelectiongov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20at%20least%205%20governors%20lose%20re-election%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev