13% — Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026
Kalshi 13% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 14:22:23 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that five or more U.S. state governors will fail to win re-election in 2026. The current 13% probability reflects a relatively low expectation for this outcome. Gubernatorial re-election rates are historically high, with most sitting governors successfully defending their seats. The main factors driving this assessment are the political environment heading into the midterm period, state-specific political dynamics, and incumbent strength across various states. The key catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the November 2026 general election, when all gubernatorial races will conclude. Leading up to that date, primary results in summer 2026 will provide early signals about incumbent vulnerability and challenger viability.

Key factors:
- Historical re-election rate for incumbent governors exceeds 70% in most midterm cycles, establishing a high baseline for incumbents to overcome this threshold
- State-by-state polling and approval ratings for current governors will indicate which incumbents face genuine competitive pressure versus comfortable re-election prospects
- Primary results during summer 2026 will reveal whether sitting governors face serious intra-party challenges that could weaken their general election positions
- The partisan composition of states with gubernatorial races and national political momentum in 2026 will affect electoral environments across different regions
- Candidate quality and campaign resources of challengers relative to incumbents will determine whether competitive races actually materialize

Contracts:
- Will exactly 0 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 0 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will exactly 1 governor lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 1 — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 2 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will exactly 3 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 3 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will exactly 4 governors lose re-election in 2026?: Exactly 4 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will at least 5 governors lose re-election in 2026?: 5 or more — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.707Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/losereelectiongov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20at%20least%205%20governors%20lose%20re-election%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev