7% — Will Ellie and George finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13 Kalshi 7% · 18 contracts · $787 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:38 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects a 5% probability that Ellie and George will finish in third place in Love Island UK Season 13. The low odds suggest market participants view this pairing as unlikely to reach the final three, relative to other competing combinations like Angelista and George (6%) or Jasmine and George (4%). The probability is driven by two main dynamics: the relative popularity and coupling stability of Ellie and George compared to other pairings shown in contract prices, and the overall trajectory of their relationship within the villa. The market will resolve when the season finale airs, at which point the final three couples and their placement will be determined, providing complete certainty on this outcome. Key factors: - George is priced higher with Angelista (6%) than with Ellie (5%), suggesting market participants view the Angelista pairing as more likely to advance - Ellie and George's coupling stability and screen time relative to competing pairs (Jasmine and George at 4%, Angelista and George at 4% for third place) indicates market sentiment on their viability - Third-place finishes require both partners to remain coupled through the penultimate elimination, which depends on viewer voting and producer editing decisions not yet aired - The 5% probability sits between zero (impossible) and higher pairing odds, suggesting the market assigns meaningful but low odds to this specific combination advancing to final three - Contract volume at $94 24h is moderate, indicating some trading activity but less conviction than the 6¢ Angelista-George contract at $266 volume Contracts: - Will Jasmine and Lorenzo finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13?: Jasmine and Lorenzo — 23¢ Kalshi $424 (weight 54%) - Will Lola and Sean finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13?: Lola and Sean — 32¢ Kalshi $211 (weight 27%) - Will Lola and Sean finish 2nd in Love Island UK Season 13?: Lola and Sean — 6¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 10%) - Will Mica and Samraj finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13?: Mica and Samraj — 8¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 9%) - Will Lola and Sean finish 3rd in Love Island UK Season 13?: Lola and Sean — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ellie and George finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?: Ellie and George — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Robyn and Sean finish 3rd in Love Island UK Season 13?: Robyn and Sean — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Angelista and Aidan finish 2nd in Love Island UK Season 13?: Angelista and Aidan — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.624Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/loveislandukrank Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ellie%20and%20George%20finish%203%20Place%20in%20Love%20Island%20UK%20Season%2013 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev