39% — Will the minimum temperature be >58° on Apr 22, 2026 Leader: 71° to 72° at 39% · Kalshi 39% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 02:40:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents the likelihood that the minimum temperature will exceed 58° on April 22, 2026—a date approximately 10 months in the future. At 45%, the market reflects moderate confidence in warmer-than-baseline conditions for that spring date. The forecast depends primarily on seasonal weather patterns and long-range climate conditions in April. Current contract activity shows traders are pricing in a range of outcomes, with the most likely single scenario being temperatures in the 75-76° range (based on today's trading, though the question asks about April). The main driver of this probability is historical April temperature distributions for the location in question and any available seasonal climate models. Resolution uncertainty will decrease significantly as April 2026 approaches and more precise weather forecasts become available, which typically improve 10-14 days before the actual date. Key factors: - The 45% probability reflects a below-even expectation, suggesting market consensus leans toward temperatures at or below 58° on April 22, 2026 - Contract volume is heavily concentrated in the 75-76° bucket ($87 24h volume), indicating significant trader interest in mid-range outcomes - The runner-up outcome (25% probability) represents the second most likely scenario, leaving approximately 30% distributed across other temperature bands - Historical April 22 temperature data for the location would provide the baseline against which a 58° minimum is compared - As the date approaches within weeks or days, weather forecast models will provide actionable signals that could materially shift market pricing away from current 45% level Contracts: - Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Jun 26, 2026?: 71° to 72° — 39¢ Kalshi $322 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be 69-70° on Jun 26, 2026?: 69° to 70° — 33¢ Kalshi $980 (weight 52%) - Will the minimum temperature be 67-68° on Jun 26, 2026?: 67° to 68° — 15¢ Kalshi $268 (weight 14%) - Will the minimum temperature be <65° on Jun 26, 2026?: 64° or below — 4¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 4%) - Will the minimum temperature be >72° on Jun 26, 2026?: 73° or above — 3¢ Kalshi $232 (weight 12%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:51.277Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtatl Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3E58%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2022%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev