37% — Will the minimum temperature be 52-53° on Apr 22, 2026 Leader: 75° to 76° at 37% · Kalshi 37% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 02:47:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 34% chance that the minimum temperature will reach 59–60°F on June 19, 2026. The pricing reflects seasonal weather patterns and historical variance for that date. Temperature predictions depend primarily on atmospheric conditions in the weeks leading up to mid-June and broader climate patterns that emerge closer to the date. The key driver of price movement will be weather forecasts issued 10–14 days before June 19, which have meaningful accuracy for daily minimum temperatures. Currently, the 59–60° range commands the highest contract price, competing with outcomes above 61°F (11¢) and cooler bands in the 55–58° range. Uncertainty will narrow as the forecast date approaches, with major weather system movements or anomalies potentially shifting probabilities significantly. Key factors: - Historical minimum temperatures on June 19 in the target location and their seasonal distribution - Current and projected atmospheric patterns 2–3 weeks before the resolution date, including pressure systems and jet stream positioning - Weather forecast skill for daily minimum temperatures typically improves materially within 10–14 days of the target date - Competing outcome contracts (>60°, 57–58°, 55–56°) collectively hold 48¢, indicating material uncertainty across the full range - Volume concentration in the 59–60° and >60° contracts ($1,166 vs. $44 in lower-probability ranges) suggests market focus on warmer outcomes Contracts: - Will the minimum temperature be 75-76° on Jul 17, 2026?: 75° to 76° — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Jul 17, 2026?: 73° to 74° — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be >76° on Jul 17, 2026?: 77° or above — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Jul 17, 2026?: 71° to 72° — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be 69-70° on Jul 17, 2026?: 69° to 70° — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be <69° on Jul 17, 2026?: 68° or below — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-17T19:20:51.099Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtchi Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%2052-53%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2022%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev