65% — Will the minimum temperature be 58-59° on Apr 22, 2026 Leader: 74° to 75° at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 4 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 07:43:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract tracks whether the minimum temperature will fall between 58-59°F on April 22, 2026—a historically cool outcome for late spring. At 39%, the market implies this temperature range is unlikely but plausible. The probability reflects seasonal expectations: April 22 typically sees warmer overnight lows across most US regions, making a 58-59° reading an outlier requiring unusual weather patterns like a strong cold front or arctic air mass. The contract will resolve on April 22, 2026, when actual temperature data is recorded. Market participants are pricing in the base rate for cool spring temperatures while accounting for natural variability—the outcome requires colder-than-typical conditions but remains within seasonal possibility. Volume suggests moderate trader interest in spring weather outcomes. Key factors: - Historical climate data for April 22 shows median low temperatures of 55-62°F depending on geographic region, meaning 58-59° falls near or slightly above normal for many locations - Current seasonal forecast models and long-range guidance would indicate whether cold air masses are expected to persist into late April or if warming is anticipated - The contract's 39% price implies roughly 1-in-3 odds, reflecting real but not dominant probability—traders view this as unlikely relative to warmer April outcomes but not improbable - Resolution depends on official temperature measurement protocols and data source, which must be specified in contract terms to eliminate ambiguity - Late-season cold snaps occasionally occur in mid-to-late April across northern regions, but persistence of such patterns into April 22 is relatively uncommon in historical records Contracts: - Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 14, 2026?: 74° to 75° — 65¢ Kalshi $473 (weight 22%) - Will the minimum temperature be 72-73° on Jul 14, 2026?: 72° to 73° — 24¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 52%) - Will the minimum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 14, 2026?: 70° to 71° — 7¢ Kalshi $272 (weight 13%) - Will the minimum temperature be >75° on Jul 14, 2026?: 76° or above — 6¢ Kalshi $274 (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T07:20:51.196Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtdal Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%2058-59%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2022%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev