59% — Will the minimum temperature be  >52° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader: 70° or above at 59% · Kalshi 59% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 04:07:45 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the minimum temperature on April 22, 2026 will exceed 52°F at a specified location. The 61% probability suggests traders view this outcome as more likely than not, based on historical temperature patterns for late April and current climate forecasts. Temperature outcomes for a specific date depend heavily on seasonal weather patterns—spring conditions in the target region typically show warming trends, but late-season cold snaps remain possible. The main drivers of this probability are historical April temperature distributions for the location and any available medium-range weather models as April 22 approaches. The critical resolution occurs on April 22, 2026 itself, when the actual minimum temperature will be recorded and compared against the 52°F threshold. Until then, atmospheric data and seasonal forecasts will likely shift the probability as spring weather patterns develop.

Key factors:
- Historical minimum temperatures for April 22 in the target location: frequency of readings above 52°F establishes baseline expectations
- Current seasonal forecast anomalies: whether spring 2026 is tracking warmer or cooler than typical for the region
- Distance to resolution date: April 22 is approximately 10.5 months away, limiting predictive precision; near-term weather signals will narrow uncertainty
- Geographic location specificity: coastal vs. inland, elevation, and regional climate zone determine temperature patterns
- Presence of bound contracts on competing outcomes: the 28% runner-up price suggests meaningful probability mass on temperatures at or below 52°F

Contracts:
- Will the minimum temperature be >69° on Jul 14, 2026?: 70° or above — 59¢ Kalshi $478 (weight 45%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 14, 2026?: 66° to 67° — 20¢ Kalshi $378 (weight 35%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 14, 2026?: 68° to 69° — 17¢ Kalshi $215 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T03:20:49.905Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtdc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3E52%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2022%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev