30% — Will the minimum temperature be  43-44° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader: 58° to 59° at 30% · Kalshi 30% · 6 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the minimum temperature be 58-59° on Jun 8, 2026?: 58° to 59° — 30¢ Kalshi $304 (weight 11%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 60-61° on Jun 8, 2026?: 60° to 61° — 18¢ Kalshi $230 (weight 9%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 56-57° on Jun 8, 2026?: 56° to 57° — 16¢ Kalshi $805 (weight 30%)
- Will the minimum temperature be <56° on Jun 8, 2026?: 55° or below — 12¢ Kalshi $837 (weight 32%)
- Will the minimum temperature be >63° on Jun 8, 2026?: 64° or above — 8¢ Kalshi $391 (weight 15%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 62-63° on Jun 8, 2026?: 62° to 63° — 8¢ Kalshi $87 (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.409Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtden
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%2043-44%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev