37% — Will the minimum temperature be <60° on Apr 22, 2026 Leader: 77° to 78° at 37% · Kalshi 37% · 4 contracts · $784 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:53 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is pricing the probability that May 24, 2026 will see a minimum temperature of 68–69°F in a specific location at 33%, making it the single most likely outcome. The distribution across temperature bands suggests moderate confidence in mild late-spring conditions, with roughly equal weight on slightly cooler (66–67°F) and slightly warmer (70–71°F) scenarios. The market would shift upward if long-range forecasts trend toward sustained warmth, or downward if cold-air patterns or weather systems develop in the weeks leading up to May 24. Resolution occurs on the actual measurement date when the daily minimum temperature is recorded, eliminating all uncertainty about which band applies. Key factors: - Current contract prices show 68–69°F as the plurality outcome (34¢), but alternatives span 66–67°F (25¢) and 70–71°F (17¢), indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus - Trading volume is light ($35–156 in 24h across contracts), suggesting limited analyst conviction and potential for repricing as the date approaches - Temperature bands are narrow (1–2°F ranges), making outcomes sensitive to small shifts in weather patterns and requiring precise measurement rather than broad directional calls - The market is pricing roughly equal probability mass for conditions cooler than 68°F (~34¢) versus warmer than 69°F (~21¢), with below-66°F outcomes assigned very low probability (9¢) - Long-range forecasts and seasonal anomaly data become more reliable 2–3 weeks before May 24, likely to trigger contract repricing as model confidence increases Contracts: - Will the minimum temperature be 77-78° on Jul 13, 2026?: 77° to 78° — 37¢ Kalshi $257 (weight 33%) - Will the minimum temperature be 75-76° on Jul 13, 2026?: 75° to 76° — 32¢ Kalshi $149 (weight 19%) - Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Jul 13, 2026?: 73° to 74° — 6¢ Kalshi $189 (weight 24%) - Will the minimum temperature be 79-80° on Jul 13, 2026?: 79° to 80° — 3¢ Kalshi $189 (weight 24%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.405Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowthou Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3C60%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2022%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev