47% — Will the minimum temperature be 57-58° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 66° to 67° at 47% · Kalshi 47% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:45:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 44% probability that the minimum temperature on June 20, 2026 will fall between 60–61°F at a specific location. The leading outcome at 42¢ suggests most traders expect temperatures near this range, with meaningful probability also assigned to slightly cooler (58–59°F at 33¢) and warmer (62°F+ at 13¢) scenarios. Temperature predictions depend heavily on seasonal weather patterns, proximity to water bodies, urban heat effects, and typical June conditions at the measurement site. The outcome will be determined definitively on June 20, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature is recorded. Traders are pricing in typical early-summer variability; the concentration around 60–61°F reflects historical June norms rather than extreme heat or cold. Movement in contract prices would likely follow updated long-range forecasts, historical precedent comparisons, or shifts in atmospheric conditions as the date approaches. Key factors: - Historical June 20 minimum temperatures at this location: frequency of outcomes in the 60–61°F band versus 58–59°F or 62°F+ categories - Long-range weather models available 14+ days before June 20: whether forecasters predict near-average, warmer, or cooler conditions - Current atmospheric and sea-surface temperature patterns: how anomalies present now typically influence early-summer minimums at this site - Recent trend in local minimum temperatures: whether the past 5–10 years show a shift from historical norms - Time of day and cloud cover typical for June 20 at measurement location: factors determining overnight low formation Contracts: - Will the minimum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 13, 2026?: 66° to 67° — 47¢ Kalshi $469 (weight 34%) - Will the minimum temperature be >67° on Jul 13, 2026?: 68° or above — 16¢ Kalshi $271 (weight 20%) - Will the minimum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 13, 2026?: 64° to 65° — 12¢ Kalshi $640 (weight 46%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:48.871Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtlax Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%2057-58%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev