26% — Will the minimum temperature be  >71° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader: 80° to 81° at 26% · Kalshi 26% · 3 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract predicts whether the minimum temperature in a specific location will exceed 71°F on April 21, 2026. The 80% probability reflects the current market consensus that such a temperature is likely, with the leading outcome (78-79°F) priced substantially higher than alternatives. The probability is driven by typical seasonal patterns for late April, regional climate patterns, and historical weather variability for that date and location. The resolution will occur on April 21, 2026, when actual minimum temperature readings are recorded and compared against the contract thresholds. Traders are effectively betting on whether April 21 conditions will fall into the warm range (78-79°F) rather than cooler alternatives (71°F or below, 76-77°F) or unusually warm (80°F+). The contract reflects confidence in above-normal temperatures for that spring date.

Key factors:
- Seasonal baseline: Late April typically experiences warming trends in most temperate zones, establishing a natural floor above 71°F
- Market concentration: 80% of contract value flows to the 78-79°F outcome, indicating strong consensus on a specific narrow range rather than broader confidence in >71°F
- Weather volatility tail risk: Spring weather patterns retain significant uncertainty; unexpected cold fronts or atmospheric anomalies could drive actual temperatures below predicted ranges
- Historical frequency data: Local climate records for April 21 over 30+ years would show how often minimum temperatures fall into each contract band
- Current date context: As of June 14, 2026, this contract appears misdated or references a past event; resolution mechanics depend on whether readings are historical or forecasted

Contracts:
- Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jun 26, 2026?: 80° to 81° — 26¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 31%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jun 26, 2026?: 78° to 79° — 21¢ Kalshi $578 (weight 15%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jun 26, 2026?: 76° to 77° — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 53%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.879Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtmia
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3E71%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev