49% — Will the minimum temperature be  43-44° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader: 69° to 70° at 49% · Kalshi 49% · 4 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:52 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 45% probability that the minimum temperature on June 15, 2026, will fall between 43–44°F. The current market leader predicts 63–64°F for that date, suggesting traders expect significantly warmer conditions. Temperature forecasts this far out rely heavily on seasonal climate patterns and historical averages for mid-June rather than precise meteorological models, which have limited skill beyond 10–14 days. The probability reflects uncertainty inherent in long-range weather prediction, where broad seasonal trends dominate but day-to-day variability remains substantial. The June 15 outcome will be determined by actual observed minimum temperature data on that date.

Key factors:
- The leading contract prices 63–64°F at 45%, indicating the market expects mid-June lows well above the 43–44°F band, reflecting typical warming patterns for that season
- Long-range weather forecasts (90+ days out) have limited skill; probabilities largely reflect climatological frequency of different temperature bands rather than specific atmospheric patterns
- The resolution depends on officially recorded minimum temperature data on June 15, 2026—a single, objective measurement that will definitively settle all contracts
- Historical temperature variability and regional climate trends for mid-June will anchor trader expectations, as deterministic weather models lose predictive power beyond two weeks
- Trading volume is relatively low across most outcomes ($49–$986 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited market depth and potential for probability shifts as new traders enter

Contracts:
- Will the minimum temperature be 69-70° on Jul 13, 2026?: 69° to 70° — 49¢ Kalshi $573 (weight 20%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 67-68° on Jul 13, 2026?: 67° to 68° — 28¢ Kalshi $880 (weight 31%)
- Will the minimum temperature be >70° on Jul 13, 2026?: 71° or above — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 38%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 13, 2026?: 65° to 66° — 3¢ Kalshi $297 (weight 10%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:51.362Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtnyc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%2043-44%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2022%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev