27% — Will the minimum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026 Leader: 69° to 70° at 27% · Kalshi 27% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 02:44:20 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract asks whether the minimum temperature on May 15, 2026 will fall between 50 and 51 degrees Fahrenheit. At 27% probability, traders view this outcome as unlikely but plausible. The current market structure shows most traders expect May 15 to be warmer—the leading outcome (68-69°) reflects seasonal expectations for mid-May conditions in most US locations. The 50-51° range would require significant deviation from typical spring temperatures. What would move this probability up or down depends primarily on seasonal weather pattern forecasts and any shifts in the underlying climate model data. Resolution occurs on May 15, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature is recorded and the winning contract pays out while others expire worthless. Key factors: - The contract resolves May 15, 2026—this date is set and unchangeable, creating a hard deadline for weather data - Market prices across the 6 temperature bins suggest median expectations around 68-71°, placing 50-51° in the lower tail of the distribution - A 50-51° minimum in mid-May would require either an unusual cold snap or measurement at a location with cooler baseline conditions - Current 27% probability is higher than the 17¢ price on the >71° outcome, indicating asymmetric risk perception across temperature ranges - Trading volume concentrates on warmer outcomes (>70°), suggesting fewer active traders betting on the 50-51° scenario Contracts: - Will the minimum temperature be 69-70° on Jul 17, 2026?: 69° to 70° — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on Jul 17, 2026?: 71° to 72° — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be 67-68° on Jul 17, 2026?: 67° to 68° — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 17, 2026?: 65° to 66° — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be <65° on Jul 17, 2026?: 64° or below — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) - Will the minimum temperature be >72° on Jul 17, 2026?: 73° or above — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-17T19:20:51.099Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtokc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%2050-51%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev