75% — Will the minimum temperature be  66-67° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader: 78° or above at 75% · Kalshi 75% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:32:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates an 75% probability that the minimum temperature in a specified location will exceed 77° on June 8, 2026. The high probability reflects seasonal patterns—early June typically brings warmer overnight lows in most U.S. regions. The current level is driven primarily by historical temperature data for this date and baseline climate conditions. Downward pressure would come from anomalously cool weather patterns or a tropical system. The contract resolves on June 8, 2026, when actual minimum temperature readings become available from the designated weather station. Until then, near-term weather forecasts (7-10 days out) and any emerging atmospheric patterns will be the main drivers of repricing.

Key factors:
- Historical daily minimum temperatures for June 8 at the measurement location typically fall in the 60-70° range; exceeding 77° would represent above-normal warmth
- Current market pricing at 75% implies roughly 3-to-1 odds, indicating baseline expectation is materially warmer than typical, not a near-certainty
- Weather forecasts from June 1-7, 2026 will provide measurable guidance; any indication of cool air mass or frontal system would pressure the contract lower
- The two-outcome structure (78° or above vs. 76-77°) leaves 17% probability mass unpriced, suggesting meaningful tail risk below 76°
- Daily minimum temperature readings are objective and verifiable at resolution; no ambiguity in contract settlement exists once the date arrives

Contracts:
- Will the minimum temperature be >77° on Jun 8, 2026?: 78° or above — 75¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 92%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jun 8, 2026?: 76° to 77° — 18¢ Kalshi $123 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:06.977Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtphx
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%2066-67%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2021%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev