46% — Will the minimum temperature be  <60° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader: 75° to 76° at 46% · Kalshi 46% · 3 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-30 03:24:46 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects the probability that the minimum temperature in a specified location will fall between 67–68°F on May 5, 2026, currently priced at 32%. The leading outcome suggests traders expect temperatures in the upper 60s rather than higher or lower ranges. Temperature forecasts depend heavily on seasonal weather patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and any unusual climate events in the weeks leading up to May 5. The primary driver of current odds is the typical late-spring climate for the region, though any significant weather anomalies or shifts in meteorological forecasts as the date approaches could shift probabilities across the temperature bands. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the actual temperature reading on May 5, 2026, though intermediate forecast updates from national weather services in late April and early May will likely move prices before final settlement.

Key factors:
- Historical average minimum temperatures for this location on May 5 and typical late-spring variability
- Current weather forecasting models and their ensemble consensus 10–15 days before the resolution date
- Atmospheric patterns (jet stream position, pressure systems) that could deliver cooler or warmer air masses to the region
- Whether the competing outcomes (69–70°F at 30%, 65–66°F at 15%) reflect genuine forecast disagreement or measurement uncertainty
- Trading volume concentration: the leading contract has minimal 24-hour volume ($7), suggesting limited recent conviction or price discovery

Contracts:
- Will the minimum temperature be 75-76° on Jun 30, 2026?: 75° to 76° — 46¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 46%)
- Will the minimum temperature be >76° on Jun 30, 2026?: 77° or above — 38¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 36%)
- Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Jun 30, 2026?: 73° to 74° — 10¢ Kalshi $899 (weight 18%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-30T03:20:49.230Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lowtsatx
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20minimum%20temperature%20be%20%20%3C60%C2%B0%20on%20Apr%2022%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev