9% — Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before May
Kalshi 9% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This 35% probability indicates traders assess there is roughly a one-in-three chance that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaves his position before May 3, 2027. The current price reflects that Lutnick has maintained his Cabinet role for several months since the administration began, suggesting relative stability in the position. However, Cabinet turnover has historically been common in Trump administrations, and factors like policy disagreements, conflicts with other officials, or investigations could prompt early departures. The most specific uncertainty centers on whether Lutnick will depart within the coming year rather than serving a full term. Traders appear to distinguish between Lutnick leaving before June 2026 (priced at just 5 cents, indicating very low near-term odds) and the broader year-long timeframe, suggesting they believe any departure, if it occurs, is more likely later in 2026 or early 2027.

Key factors:
- Lutnick's current tenure duration and relative absence of recent public controversies involving his position
- Historical Cabinet turnover rates under Trump compared to other administrations
- Ongoing legal, regulatory, or policy developments affecting commerce policy or Lutnick's specific portfolio
- Competitive dynamics between Cabinet members and potential power struggles that could force turnover
- Market-implied distinction between imminent departure (5% for before June 1) versus extended timeframe (35% for before May 2027), suggesting traders expect stability in the near term

Contracts:
- Will Howard Lutnick leaves Commerce Secretary in before September?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.681Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/lutnickout
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Howard%20Lutnick%20leaves%20Commerce%20Secretary%20in%20before%20May
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev