92% — Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $213 average passenger fare in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 56 million at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 16 contracts · $31 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 05:00:57 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes. Why this matters: This market asks whether Southwest Airlines will report average passenger fares above $213 in Q1 2026, and traders currently assess this as 92% likely. The high probability reflects confidence that Southwest's fares will remain elevated, driven by sustained travel demand and industry pricing power observed through early 2026. Downward pressure would come from capacity additions, competitive fare wars, or unexpected demand weakness. Q1 2026 results will be formally disclosed in late April or early May 2026, resolving the outcome. The related Q2 fare contracts trading at 88-90% (for $216-$219 thresholds) suggest expectations for moderately higher fares in the subsequent quarter, indicating a relatively stable pricing environment rather than sharp increases or declines. Key factors: - Southwest's Q1 2026 actual average fare relative to historical baseline and competitor pricing trends - Aggregate industry capacity growth and load factors during Q1 2026 travel season - Macroeconomic indicators affecting leisure and business travel demand through March 2026 - Fuel costs and cost inflation pressures on airline operations in early 2026 - Southwest's official earnings announcement date and reported fare metrics for Q1 2026 Contracts: - Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 56 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 56 million — 92¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 90%) - Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $216 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $216 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 57 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 57 million — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $219 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $219 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above 58 million seats flown in Q2 2026?: Above 58 million — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $222 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $222 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $225 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $225 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Southwest Airlines Company report Above $228 average passenger fare in Q2 2026?: Above $228 — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T04:20:49.801Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/luv Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Southwest%20Airlines%20Company%20report%20Above%20%24213%20average%20passenger%20fare%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev