21% — Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0% Leader: 6.5% or Above at 21% · Kalshi 21% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:00 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is pricing a 22% probability that year-over-year M2 money-supply growth will fall below 5.0% by December 2026. The current market consensus leans toward growth between 6.0% and 6.4%, suggesting expectations for moderately expansionary monetary conditions. M2 growth depends primarily on Federal Reserve policy rates and the overall stance of monetary accommodation—lower interest rates and quantitative easing would increase growth, while rate hikes or balance sheet runoff would decrease it. The outcome will be heavily influenced by inflation and employment data reported through late 2026, along with FOMC policy decisions. The exact December figure will be released by the Federal Reserve in early January 2027, resolving all contracts simultaneously. Traders are currently assigning low probability to the below-5.0% scenario, implying expectations that the Fed will either maintain accommodative conditions or that growth will not decelerate sharply. Key factors: - Federal Reserve funds rate path through Q4 2026—each 25bp cut typically adds roughly 0.5-1.0pp to trailing M2 growth; current market pricing suggests limited additional easing - Realized inflation data and labor market strength reported June through November 2026—persistent high inflation or tight employment reduces likelihood of aggressive rate cuts - M2 velocity trends and demand for money balances; if velocity remains elevated, nominal M2 growth may compress even without tighter policy - Cumulative monetary base expansion or contraction through balance sheet policy (QE/QT) during the second half of 2026 - Year-over-year comparison base effect—December 2025 M2 level will anchor the denominator for the year-over-year calculation released January 2027 Contracts: - Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be at least 6.5%?: 6.5% or Above — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.5% and 5.9%?: 5.5% to 5.9% — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 6.0% and 6.4%?: 6.0% to 6.4% — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be below 5.0%?: Below 5.0% — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will M2 money-supply growth for December 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.4%?: 5.0% to 5.4% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.951Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/m2growth Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20M2%20money-supply%20growth%20for%20December%202026%20be%20below%205.0%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev