80% — MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Dan Koh at 80% · Polymarket 80% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 82% probability indicates that a specific candidate in Massachusetts's 6th congressional district Democratic primary is favored to win the party nomination. The strong likelihood reflects either consolidated support from major Democratic factions, a significant polling lead, or early organizational advantages in the district. The probability could shift downward if a rival candidate gains unexpected endorsements, if polling narrows significantly, or if turnout patterns differ from current expectations. The Massachusetts state primary date will be the critical resolution point, as it will definitively determine the Democratic nominee and either confirm the frontrunner's dominance or reveal a surprise challenger surge. Between now and the primary, candidate debate performance, late campaign spending, and endorsement patterns represent the main events that could alter current market expectations substantially.

Key factors:
- The leading contract has priced 82% compared to runners-up at 6%, indicating significant market consensus behind one candidate rather than a competitive four-way race
- Polymarket contract volume of $24 traded across the four outcomes suggests moderate liquidity and pricing based on actual trading activity rather than minimal interest
- The primary election date is the single point of resolution; no intermediate polling releases or scheduled debates are specified in available data
- Current frontrunner status could erode if consolidation patterns shift or if undecided voters break toward an alternative candidate in final weeks
- Massachusetts Democratic primary rules regarding voter eligibility, delegate allocation, and winner determination will mechanically resolve the outcome once votes are counted

Contracts:
- MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner: Dan Koh — 80¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner: Tram Nguyen — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner: Diann Slavit Baylis — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner: Mariah Lancaster — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner: Kevin Larivee — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)
- MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner: Rachel Creemers — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 17%)

Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ma06-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MA-06%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev