33% — Will Jamie Belsito be the Democratic nominee for MA-6
Kalshi 33% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Jamie Belsito will become the Democratic nominee for Massachusetts's 6th congressional district. The 81% likelihood suggests strong confidence in this outcome, though the forecast depends on several contingencies. Key drivers include whether Belsito can maintain support among progressive Democratic primary voters, the strength and viability of competing candidates, and turnout patterns in the district. Any significant shift in candidate endorsements, fundraising dynamics, or candidate withdrawals could move this probability substantially. The primary election itself will be the definitive moment of resolution, at which point the market will either confirm or contradict current expectations based on actual voter choices.

Key factors:
- Current polling and primary performance data among registered Democratic voters in MA-6, if available
- Endorsement patterns from local party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in the district
- Candidate fundraising totals and spending intensity in the race to date
- Whether competing candidates remain active or withdraw, consolidating support behind rivals
- Historical primary turnout and demographic composition trends in MA-6 Democratic primaries

Contracts:
- Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?: Dan Koh — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?: John Beccia — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-6?: Tram Nguyen — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.285Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ma6d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jamie%20Belsito%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20MA-6
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev