10% — Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 10% · Kalshi 10% · 2 contracts · $631 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 04:41:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 53% chance that María Corina Machado will physically return to Venezuela by the end of 2026, with only 25% probability for a visit before August 1. Machado, a prominent Venezuelan opposition figure, has faced significant political and legal obstacles to returning to her home country. The probability reflects ongoing uncertainty about whether security conditions, diplomatic negotiations, or political developments would enable or prevent her entry before year-end. Near-term catalysts include announced travel plans, changes in Venezuela's government stance toward opposition figures, or shifts in regional political dynamics. Longer timeframes show lower probability, suggesting market participants expect any return to occur relatively soon or not at all through 2026.

Key factors:
- Machado's current location and stated travel plans or timeline for Venezuela return
- Venezuelan government's position on allowing opposition figures to enter; any changes in detention, arrest warrant, or travel ban policies
- Timing of scheduled political events or negotiations in Venezuela that might coincide with her return
- Security and safety conditions for high-profile opposition members attempting to enter Venezuela
- Outcome of related Kalshi contracts showing very low probability (25%) for August 1 visit, suggesting market expects any trip to occur in final months of 2026 or not at all

Contracts:
- Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 10¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 38%)
- Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 5¢ Kalshi $394 (weight 62%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T04:20:50.843Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/machadovenezuela
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mar%C3%ADa%20Corina%20Machado%20visit%20Venezuela%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev