25% — Will Iga Swiatek win the WTA Madrid Open Kalshi 25% · 8 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:06 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 23% chance that Iga Swiatek wins the 2026 WTA Madrid Open, based on aggregated pricing across eight contracts on Kalshi. Swiatek is a former world number one and proven clay-court specialist, but the probability reflects significant competition in WTA tournaments. The price would likely shift based on her recent match performance, injury status, and the announced field of competitors. The Madrid Open typically occurs in May, so resolution depends on the tournament's outcome once it takes place. Key variables affecting the probability include Swiatek's current ranking and form heading into the event, whether top-ranked competitors participate, and how odds adjust as the tournament approaches and draw details emerge. Key factors: - Swiatek's ranking and recent match results in the months preceding Madrid, particularly performance on clay courts - Participation status and seeding of other top-ranked WTA players, particularly those strong on clay - Any injury updates or scheduling decisions from Swiatek that would affect tournament entry - Historical performance data: Swiatek's win rate at Madrid and in WTA 1000 events over recent seasons - Real-time odds movement as tournament approaches and draw becomes official, indicating how professional bettors reassess her chances Contracts: - Will Michigan St. win the College Basketball National Championship?: Michigan St. — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 69%) - Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan: Republican party — 13¢ Kalshi $286 (weight 11%) - Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?: Democratic party — 72¢ Kalshi $176 (weight 7%) - Will Michigan win the College Basketball National Championship?: Michigan — 5¢ Kalshi $136 (weight 5%) - Will at least 5 of the following 6 Democratic candidates win their 2026 Senate primaries: James Talarico in Texas, Raja Krishnamoorthi in Illinois, Josh Turek in Iowa, Graham Platner in Maine, Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, and Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota?: Yes — 7¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 4%) - Will Republicans win the Senate race in Michigan?: Republican party — 28¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 3%) - Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 48¢ Kalshi $45 (weight 2%) - Will Western Michigan win the College Football Mid-American Conference Championship?: Western Michigan — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.085Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/madwomen Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Iga%20Swiatek%20win%20the%20WTA%20Madrid%20Open Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev