93% — Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 100000000 during calendar year 2026
Leader: Above 15 million dollars at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 11 contracts · $3 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 12:51:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This prediction estimates a 96% probability that MAGA Inc.'s total FEC-reported disbursements will exceed $100 million during 2026. The organization's spending level depends primarily on the intensity of political activity throughout the year and the specific campaigns or initiatives it funds. The probability reflects market confidence in substantial spending, though the exact threshold remains uncertain. Key catalysts include FEC quarterly filings, which provide official disbursement data throughout the year, and major political events that drive funding decisions. The market shows meaningful confidence gaps at higher thresholds: spending above $150 million trades at 48%, while $200 million sits at 30%, suggesting traders view $100 million as reasonably likely but further escalation as less certain. Year-to-date spending patterns and announced organizational priorities will be critical indicators for resolution.

Key factors:
- FEC quarterly filings scheduled for 2026 will provide official disbursement totals, directly confirming or contradicting spending projections
- MAGA Inc.'s stated priorities and announced campaign activities in late 2025 and early 2026 will indicate expected spending levels
- The $100 million threshold compared to the organization's historical 2024-2025 spending patterns provides a baseline for assessing likelihood
- Market pricing shows declining probabilities at $150M (48%) and $200M (30%), indicating consensus that $100M is achievable but higher levels less probable
- Major political events or changes in organizational leadership during 2026 could materially accelerate or reduce anticipated disbursements

Contracts:
- Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 15000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 15 million dollars — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 20000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 20 million dollars — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 25000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 25 million dollars — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 30000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 30 million dollars — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 40000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 40 million dollars — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 50000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 50 million dollars — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 75000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 75 million dollars — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 100000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 100 million dollars — 67¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 100%)
- ... and 3 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-07T12:20:54.873Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/magaincspend
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20MAGA%20Inc.'s%20FEC-reported%20total%20disbursements%20value%20be%20above%20100000000%20during%20calendar%20year%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev