29% — Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...
Leader: December 31 at 29% · Polymarket 29% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 15:20:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 56% probability that Mahmoud Abbas will no longer serve as Palestinian President by an unspecified date. Abbas, who has led the Palestinian Authority since 2005, faces ongoing health concerns and political pressures from rival factions including Hamas. Market participants appear to be pricing in the possibility of succession or forced transition, though Abbas has repeatedly resisted calls for his resignation. The outcome hinges on Abbas's health trajectory, internal Palestinian political dynamics, and whether external actors attempt to force leadership changes. Key resolution events would include any official announcement of resignation, death, incapacity, or successful coup by rival Palestinian groups. Compared to other political leadership markets, this probability reflects moderate uncertainty about near-term Palestinian governance changes.

Key factors:
- Abbas is 88 years old with a documented history of health complications that have required hospitalization
- Hamas and other Palestinian factions have periodically called for Abbas's removal and control different territorial areas within Palestinian governance
- The Palestinian Authority faces institutional fragmentation and Abbas has limited mechanisms to enforce succession or prevent forced transition
- No scheduled elections or formal transition mechanisms are currently set, meaning any change would likely occur through unilateral action rather than democratic process
- International recognition and legitimacy of Palestinian leadership depends significantly on which faction or individual assumes control

Contracts:
- Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?: December 31 — 29¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?: June 30 — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Mahmoud%20Abbas%20out%20as%20Palestinian%20President%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev