34% — Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-election
Kalshi 34% · 3 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:01 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Restore Britain win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?: Restore Britain — 4¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 46%)
- Will Labour win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?: Labour — 76¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 42%)
- Will Reform UK win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?: Reform UK — 21¢ Kalshi $926 (weight 11%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.383Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/makerfieldby
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Restore%20Britain%20win%20the%202026%20Makerfield%20by-election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev