17% — Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 3% and 6% Leader: Andy Burnham, 3-6% at 17% · Kalshi 17% · 10 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:02 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract prices the likelihood that Andy Burnham will win the Makerfield by-election with a margin between 3% and 6%. The 13% probability reflects modest market conviction in this specific outcome, with traders currently favoring narrower margins (0–3%) at 13% and wider ones (6–9%) at 16%. The Burnham campaign's strength in the region and the fragmentation of opposition support are key variables; a tighter race could push this probability higher, while decisive polling showing larger or smaller margins would shift weight to adjacent outcomes. The by-election result itself will resolve this contract definitively. Until then, pre-election polling trends, campaign spending, and turnout estimates shape market expectations. The distributed probabilities across margin bands suggest genuine uncertainty about whether Burnham wins by a comfortable or decisive margin. Key factors: - Pre-election polling showing Burnham's lead between 3–6 percentage points would directly support this outcome; published polls deviating significantly in either direction would reduce its probability - Turnout patterns in Makerfield relative to recent elections affect margin realization, since lower opposition turnout could widen Burnham's margin beyond 6% - Market pricing shows a cumulative ~27% probability for Burnham margins of 6% or wider, indicating traders expect a stronger performance; this outcome at 13% is thus relatively underweighted - Campaign momentum and late-stage endorsements or gaffes in the final weeks before polling day could shift vote share and push actual margins into or out of this band - Historical by-election results in similar constituencies provide baseline expectations; significant deviation from recent Makerfield voting patterns would alter the probability substantially Contracts: - Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 3% and 6%?: Andy Burnham, 3-6% — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 25%) - Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 0% and 3%?: Andy Burnham, 0-3% — 15¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 14%) - Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 6% and 9%?: Andy Burnham, 6-9% — 11¢ Kalshi $140 (weight 2%) - Will the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 0% and 3%?: Robert Kenyon, 0-3% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 3% and 6%?: Robert Kenyon, 3-6% — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 24%) - Will the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be above 9%?: Robert Kenyon, ≥9% — 7¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 3%) - Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 9% and 12%?: Andy Burnham, 9-12% — 7¢ Kalshi $136 (weight 2%) - Will the margin of victory for Robert Kenyon in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 6% and 9%?: Robert Kenyon, 6-9% — 6¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.399Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/makerfieldmov Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Andy%20Burnham%20in%20the%202026%20Makerfield%20by-election%20be%20between%203%25%20and%206%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev