69% — Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026
Leader: Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins at 69% · Kalshi 69% · 2 contracts · $44K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 20:15:43 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Claire Valdez wins the NY-07 Democratic primary, Brad Lander wins the NY-10 Democratic primary, and Darializa Avila Chevalier loses the NY-13 Democratic primary in September 2026. The 40% probability suggests moderate confidence in this specific outcome combination, driven by assumptions about candidate viability and district dynamics in these three New York races. The main variables affecting this probability are each candidate's current polling position, endorsement patterns, fundraising strength, and voter sentiment in their respective districts. The September 2026 primaries will directly resolve these races, with earlier indicators such as campaign spending reports and any public polling updates likely to shift market expectations beforehand. Since this is a three-outcome conjunction, the probability depends on all three individual races moving in the specified directions simultaneously—a more restrictive condition than any single race outcome alone.

Key factors:
- Claire Valdez's current standing and momentum relative to other NY-07 Democratic primary candidates
- Brad Lander's visibility, fundraising, and endorsements in NY-10 compared to competing Democratic candidates
- Darializa Avila Chevalier's vulnerability to primary challenge in NY-13 and whether an opponent with sufficient resources emerges
- The concentration of this outcome's probability on Valdez winning and Lander winning, suggesting these two are treated as more likely than other combinations
- Campaign finance disclosures and any public polling data released between June and September 2026 as leading indicators of shift

Contracts:
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier wins — 69¢ Kalshi $23K (weight 51%)
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026?: Valdez wins, Lander wins, Chevalier loses — 15¢ Kalshi $22K (weight 49%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mamdaniendorse
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Claire%20Valdez%20be%20victorious%20in%20the%20NY-07%20Democratic%20primary%20AND%20Brad%20Lander%20be%20victorious%20in%20the%20NY-10%20Democratic%20primary%20AND%20Darializa%20Avila%20Chevalier%20be%20defeated%20in%20the%20NY-13%20Democratic%20primary%20for%20Sep%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev