80% — Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 52 in the first such poll released after July 28, 2026
Leader: At least 56% at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 6 contracts · $600 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 07:08:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects whether Zohran Mamdani will have at least 52% favorable opinion among New York City respondents in Siena University's next poll after July 28, 2026. Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Brooklyn, has a political base in one of the state's most liberal districts, which supports relatively high baseline favorability in NYC polling. The 93% probability indicates market confidence he'll exceed the 52% threshold, though the steep price drop to 13% for 64% favorability suggests significant uncertainty about his support ceiling. The main drivers are Mamdani's current standing in recent NYC-specific polling, any major political developments affecting his profile, and the specific methodology Siena University applies to its next survey. Resolution depends entirely on when Siena releases its next poll containing NYC respondent breakdowns and favorable opinion metrics.

Key factors:
- Mamdani's previous favorable ratings in NYC-specific polling data from recent months
- Whether the next Siena poll is released in 2026 or later, and the time lag between today and that release
- Political events between now and the poll's release that could shift his favorability trajectory
- The size and composition of the NYC subsample in Siena's poll, which affects statistical reliability of the favorability measure
- Whether 'favorable opinion' is measured on a standard approve/disapprove scale or a different favorability framework

Contracts:
- Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 56 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 56% — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 58 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 58% — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 62 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 62% — 52¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 67%)
- Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 64 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 64% — 48¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 33%)
- Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 66 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 66% — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 60 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 60% — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-24T09:20:49.656Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mamdanipoll
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20percentage%20of%20New%20York%20City%20respondents%20who%20say%20they%20have%20a%20favorable%20opinion%20of%20Zohran%20Mamdani%20in%20Siena%20University%E2%80%99s%20poll%20be%20at%20least%2052%20in%20the%20first%20such%20poll%20released%20after%20July%2028%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev