88% — Will Total Construction Spending
Leader: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion?: Above $130 billion at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 07:15:42 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 15% probability represents the market's assessment that total construction spending will meet a specific threshold in an upcoming period. The current low probability suggests traders expect construction activity to remain below that benchmark. The main drivers of this assessment are recent economic data on construction activity, labor availability in the construction sector, and anticipated policy or interest-rate impacts on building investment. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the official construction spending release from the relevant statistical agency, which will provide definitive data against the contract's specific threshold. Between now and resolution, changes in mortgage rates, unemployment figures, and business confidence indicators could shift trader expectations significantly. The relatively low trading volume across related contracts indicates moderate market interest in this outcome.

Key factors:
- Construction spending data releases will directly test whether activity exceeds the specified threshold
- Interest rate movements affect borrowing costs and investment decisions for construction projects
- Labor market conditions, particularly wage pressure and availability, influence construction sector capacity and spending
- Private investment announcements and government infrastructure spending announcements signal future construction activity
- Seasonal patterns in construction spending may concentrate activity in specific quarters, affecting whether annual or quarterly thresholds are crossed

Contracts:
- Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $130 billion?: Above $130 billion — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $140 billion?: Above $140 billion — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $150 billion?: Above $150 billion — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $160 billion?: Above $160 billion — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $170 billion?: Above $170 billion — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $180 billion?: Above $180 billion — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $190 billion?: Above $190 billion — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States for December 2026 be above $220 billion?: Above $220 billion — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.395Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/manucon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Total%20Construction%20Spending
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev