56% — Will Chris Boyd be the Democratic nominee for MA-04 Kalshi 56% · 10 contracts · $389 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 01:50:47 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates that markets estimate a 37% chance Chris Boyd wins the Democratic primary for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district. The moderate probability suggests meaningful competition but Boyd as a plausible frontrunner. Primary dynamics in this district would be shaped by candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsements from local Democratic officials, and voter preferences across the district's demographic composition. The Democratic nominee will be determined by the primary election, which typically occurs in Massachusetts during the fall of election years. Comparably, other Massachusetts Democratic nominations show varying confidence levels—Lori Trahan leads MA-03 at 89%, while less-established candidates in other districts trade at single-digit percentages. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about candidate field strength, potential late entrants, and whether Boyd maintains momentum through primary season. Key factors: - Chris Boyd's current funding and fundraising trajectory relative to other potential MA-04 Democratic candidates - Endorsements and support from established Massachusetts Democratic figures, particularly those representing or influential in the 4th district - Whether competing primary candidates enter or exit the race before the filing deadline - Voter polling or primary election results in neighboring Massachusetts districts (MA-03 and MA-08 showing high incumbent confidence at 89% and 88%) - The timing and any declared intentions from incumbent Representative Jake Auchincloss regarding re-election or seeking higher office Contracts: - Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?: Patrick Roath — 41¢ Kalshi $231 (weight 59%) - Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?: Stephen Lynch — 57¢ Kalshi $155 (weight 40%) - Will Jeromie Whalen be the Democratic nominee for MA-01?: Jeromie Whalen — 12¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - Will Richard Neal be the Democratic nominee for MA-01?: Richard Neal — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lori Trahan be the Democratic nominee for MA-03?: Lori Trahan — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jake Auchincloss be the Democratic nominee for MA-04?: Jake Auchincloss — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jason Poulos be the Democratic nominee for MA-04?: Jason Poulos — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will John Field be the Republican nominee for MA-06?: John Field — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.004Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/maprimary Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chris%20Boyd%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20MA-04 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev