10% — Will Viola Cheptoo win the New York City Marathon Women's Open Division Kalshi 10% · 13 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-29 09:19:21 UTC Why this matters: This 11% probability reflects the market's assessment that Viola Cheptoo has roughly a 1-in-9 chance of winning the 2026 New York City Marathon women's division. The probability reflects her competitive standing relative to other elite distance runners who are expected to compete. Market pricing for marathon outcomes typically depends on recent race performance, marathon-specific experience, course history, and field composition. The primary catalyst that would resolve this uncertainty is the race itself, scheduled for early November 2026, which will determine the actual winner. Between now and then, factors like injury announcements, tune-up race results, or official field confirmations could shift probabilities as new information about competitor health and readiness emerges. Key factors: - Viola Cheptoo's finishing times and placements in marathon competitions during 2024-2026 relative to other women elite runners expected to compete in NYC - Recent performance trends in half-marathons or 10K races that might indicate current fitness level and form - Confirmation of the final elite women's field and any withdrawals or additions of competitors between now and November 2026 - Historical data on how frequently runners with similar personal records and recent form win major marathons - Course-specific factors such as whether Cheptoo has previously run the NYC Marathon course and how her performance compared Contracts: - Will Andreas Almgren win the New York City Marathon Men's Open Division?: Andreas Almgren — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Abdi Nageeye win the New York City Marathon Men's Open Division?: Abdi Nageeye — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Benson Kipruto win the New York City Marathon Men's Open Division?: Benson Kipruto — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will CyBrian Kotut win the New York City Marathon Men's Open Division?: CyBrian Kotut — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Deresa Geleta win the New York City Marathon Men's Open Division?: Deresa Geleta — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Geoffrey Kamworor win the New York City Marathon Men's Open Division?: Geoffrey Kamworor — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Huseydin Mohamed Esa win the New York City Marathon Men's Open Division?: Huseydin Mohamed Esa — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will Edna Kiplagat win the New York City Marathon Women's Open Division?: Edna Kiplagat — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-29T08:20:55.834Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/marathon Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Viola%20Cheptoo%20win%20the%20New%20York%20City%20Marathon%20Women's%20Open%20Division Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev