22% — Will marijuana be legalized federally?
Kalshi 24% · Polymarket 17% · 12 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:53 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 7pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?: Below 5% — 3¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 45%)
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 27%)
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 23%)
- Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? — 20¢ Polymarket $227 (weight 2%)
- OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? — 13¢ Polymarket $111 (weight 1%)
- Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act — 46¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 1%)
- Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes — 3¢ Kalshi $58 (weight 1%)
- Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.767Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/marijuana-legalization
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20marijuana%20be%20legalized%20federally%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev