16% — Will marijuana be legalized federally?
Kalshi 16% · 6 contracts · $118K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:30:59 UTC

Contracts:
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 10¢ Kalshi $116K (weight 99%)
- Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 1%)
- Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile — 20¢ Kalshi $45 (weight 0%)
- Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?: Below 5% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Trump aprpove a new city on federal land?: Before 2029 — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:49.400Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/marijuana-legalization
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20marijuana%20be%20legalized%20federally%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev