5% — Will Indiana win the College Basketball National Championship Kalshi 5% · 14 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 11:51:23 UTC Why this matters: This 6% probability indicates traders see Indiana as an unlikely winner of the 2026-27 college basketball championship. Indiana's low odds reflect either questions about roster composition, recent performance, or competitive depth in the conference. The probability would shift based on preseason performance metrics, recruiting class evaluations, and comparative strength assessments against established contenders like Florida (12%) and Illinois (8%). The main uncertainty resolver will be the actual start of the 2026-27 season in November, when early tournament results and team performance against ranked opponents provide concrete evidence of championship viability. Significant roster changes through transfer portal activity or injury updates could also meaningfully adjust expectations before play begins. Key factors: - Indiana's current odds are 50% of Florida's probability and 75% of Illinois's, suggesting analytical consensus views both as notably stronger championship contenders - Kalshi shows only 11 active contracts for Indiana versus comparable volume on Florida ($1,985 24h) and Arkansas ($4,072 24h), indicating lower trading interest and thinner liquidity - The 6% probability implies Indiana would need to win approximately 1 in 17 hypothetical championship tournaments, consistent with a tournament bid team but not a preseason favorite - Early-season non-conference performance and conference standings through January will provide the primary data for reassessing Indiana's championship probability - Transfer portal acquisitions and injuries sustained through fall camp represent the main catalysts that could shift Indiana's odds before season play begins Contracts: - Will Gonzaga win the College Basketball National Championship?: Gonzaga — 3¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 59%) - Will Tennessee win the College Basketball National Championship?: Tennessee — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 19%) - Will UConn win the College Basketball National Championship?: UConn — 6¢ Kalshi $681 (weight 9%) - Will Illinois win the College Basketball National Championship?: Illinois — 7¢ Kalshi $441 (weight 6%) - Will St. John's win the College Basketball National Championship?: St. John's — 3¢ Kalshi $302 (weight 4%) - Will Michigan win the College Basketball National Championship?: Michigan — 3¢ Kalshi $157 (weight 2%) - Will Florida win the College Basketball National Championship?: Florida — 13¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 1%) - Will Arkansas win the College Basketball National Championship?: Arkansas — 3¢ Kalshi $57 (weight 1%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T11:21:48.184Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/marmad Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Indiana%20win%20the%20College%20Basketball%20National%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev