6% — Will Indiana win the College Basketball National Championship Kalshi 6% · 12 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:26 UTC Why this matters: Indiana's 6% probability reflects market assessment that the Hoosiers are unlikely to win the 2026 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball National Championship. This estimate sits between mid-tier contenders like UConn (7%) and stronger favorites like Duke and Michigan (both 12%). The probability would likely shift based on team performance during tournament play, roster health entering March Madness, and seed positioning. The NCAA Tournament selection process and subsequent bracket outcomes will determine whether Indiana advances deep enough to contend for the title. Key drivers include Indiana's regular season trajectory, conference tournament results, and NCAA Tournament seeding, which typically occur in early March and directly influence championship odds. Key factors: - Indiana's seed in the NCAA Tournament and strength of schedule in tournament matchups - Team roster health and availability of key players entering the tournament - Indiana's win-loss record and conference tournament performance relative to other tournament contenders - Market liquidity and trading volume on Indiana contracts compared to higher-probability teams like Alabama (3%) and Duke (12%) - Indiana's historical tournament success rate and whether current roster composition matches or exceeds past championship-caliber teams Contracts: - Will Arkansas win the College Basketball National Championship?: Arkansas — 3¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 63%) - Will Illinois win the College Basketball National Championship?: Illinois — 7¢ Kalshi $643 (weight 8%) - Will St. John's win the College Basketball National Championship?: St. John's — 3¢ Kalshi $506 (weight 7%) - Will UConn win the College Basketball National Championship?: UConn — 7¢ Kalshi $500 (weight 7%) - Will Duke win the College Basketball National Championship?: Duke — 12¢ Kalshi $370 (weight 5%) - Will Arizona win the College Basketball National Championship?: Arizona — 4¢ Kalshi $290 (weight 4%) - Will Texas win the College Basketball National Championship?: Texas — 3¢ Kalshi $275 (weight 4%) - Will Michigan win the College Basketball National Championship?: Michigan — 5¢ Kalshi $118 (weight 2%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.100Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/marmad Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Indiana%20win%20the%20College%20Basketball%20National%20Championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev