21% — Will Texas be selected as a top 5 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament Kalshi 21% · 20 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 11:27:08 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that the University of Texas men's basketball team will receive a top-5 seed (1-5) in the NCAA Division I Tournament selection on March 17, 2027. The 43% probability reflects uncertainty about whether Texas will finish among the nation's strongest teams by tournament time. The current level likely reflects Texas's recent trajectory in the Big 12 Conference and national rankings, balanced against the difficulty of maintaining elite status through the remainder of the regular season and conference tournament. Several factors could shift this probability: significant win/loss streaks during the 2026-27 season, changes in roster health or player availability, and tournament performance in March would all influence the actual selection committee's seeding decision. The primary catalyst resolving this market will be the official NCAA tournament selection announcement in mid-March 2027, when seeds are officially assigned based on the committee's evaluation of teams' performance, strength of schedule, and other metrics. Key factors: - Texas's conference record and winning percentage through the 2026-27 regular season and Big 12 tournament - Strength of schedule results, including performance against ranked opponents and tournament-quality teams - Comparison to other major conference teams projected for top seeds (Florida at 61¢, Arizona at 18-32¢ range suggest competitive field) - Player health and roster continuity through January-March 2027 - The NCAA selection committee's evaluation criteria applied consistently across all 68-team tournament field on March 17, 2027 Contracts: - Will Arizona be selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Arizona — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Arkansas be selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Arkansas — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will UConn be selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: UConn — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Duke be selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Duke — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Florida be selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Florida — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Gonzaga be selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Gonzaga — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Houston be selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Houston — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Illinois be selected as a top 2 seed in the 2027 Division I Men's College Basketball Tournament?: Illinois — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T11:20:50.752Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/marmadseed Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Texas%20be%20selected%20as%20a%20top%205%20seed%20in%20the%202027%20Division%20I%20Men's%20College%20Basketball%20Tournament Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev