59% — Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Aug 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 59% · Kalshi 59% · 7 contracts · $548 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:57 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This reflects an 24% chance that Ken Martin steps down as Democratic National Committee chair before January 1, 2027. The relatively low probability suggests most market participants expect Martin to remain in the position through at least early 2027. Key drivers of this assessment include party stability concerns, the DNC's role in the 2026 midterm elections, and any internal leadership challenges that might surface. The most immediate resolution point is the June 1, 2026 deadline, which trades at just 7%, indicating minimal expectation of near-term departure. Movement in these probabilities would depend on public statements from party leadership, documented internal conflicts, electoral performance in the midterms, or Martin's own announcements about his tenure. Key factors: - Current trading prices show 7% probability of departure before June 1 versus 24% before January 1, suggesting market expects any departure, if it occurs, to happen after midterm elections conclude - The DNC chair role carries heightened visibility during election cycles; midterm performance could influence retention decisions or internal pressure for leadership change - No public reporting indicates imminent leadership challenges or health concerns that would trigger immediate departure - Historical precedent shows DNC chairs typically serve full terms unless significant electoral losses or internal party fractures occur - Market volume is minimal (zero 24h volume on the August and January contracts), indicating low trader interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads Contracts: - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 41¢ Kalshi $221 (weight 40%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 27¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 1%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $319 (weight 58%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T12:20:52.341Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/martindncout Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ken%20Martin%20be%20out%20as%20chair%20of%20the%20Democratic%20National%20Committee%20before%20Aug%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev