59% — Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jul 1, 2027 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 59% · Kalshi 59% · 7 contracts · $548 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 04:41:10 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets currently assess a 47% chance that Ken Martin will no longer serve as DNC chair before January 1, 2028. This reflects moderate uncertainty about his tenure over the next 5-6 months. The probability is driven primarily by the DNC's recent 2024 electoral performance and typical leadership transitions following presidential election cycles. Near-term exit odds are much lower (15% before September 2026, 31% before July 2027), suggesting markets expect him to remain in position through at least late 2026. The main catalyst would be either an explicit public announcement of resignation or removal by the DNC's governing body, which typically occurs during formal meetings or in response to internal party dynamics. Key factors: - DNC chair terms are often tied to election cycles; 2024 results will heavily influence whether leadership remains stable or faces pressure to change - No public announcement of Martin stepping down has been reported as of July 2026, which would be necessary for the near-term contracts to resolve positively - The DNC typically conducts formal leadership reviews or transitions at scheduled meetings rather than through unplanned removals - Historical precedent shows DNC chairs often serve through the post-election transition period into the following year before changes occur - Volume is concentrated in the Jan 1, 2028 contract ($5 24h), with minimal trading on nearer-term dates, indicating limited conviction in near-term exit scenarios Contracts: - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 41¢ Kalshi $221 (weight 40%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 27¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 1%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $319 (weight 58%) - Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T04:20:50.348Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "59% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/martindncout-26may Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ken%20Martin%20be%20out%20as%20chair%20of%20the%20Democratic%20National%20Committee%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev