93% — Top Math AI this month
Leader: Gemini at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 3 contracts · $678 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:25:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations for which AI system will be ranked as the top performer on mathematical reasoning benchmarks during June 2026. Gemini is currently the market leader at 56%, with Claude at 39% and ChatGPT at 4%. The assessment depends primarily on how different AI systems perform on standardized math evaluation frameworks released or updated this month. Key drivers include recent benchmark releases, performance on competitions like the International Mathematical Olympiad or similar assessments, and how different providers measure and publicize their results. Resolution will likely depend on which model demonstrates superior performance on verifiable mathematical problem-solving tasks released by major AI research organizations or independent evaluators during this period.

Key factors:
- Benchmark results released by major organizations (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic) during June 2026 on standardized math evaluation sets
- Performance on mathematical olympiad-style problems or other third-party mathematical reasoning competitions active this month
- Publication dates and methodologies of any major peer-reviewed evaluations comparing AI systems on mathematical tasks
- Market participants' weighting of different evaluation sources and their perceived credibility for ranking math capability
- Volume concentration ($478 vs $413 vs $136 24h) suggesting unequal confidence levels across outcomes rather than genuine uncertainty

Contracts:
- Top Math AI this month?: Gemini — 93¢ Kalshi $165 (weight 24%)
- Top Math AI this month?: Claude — 3¢ Kalshi $262 (weight 39%)
- Top Math AI this month?: ChatGPT — 3¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 37%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:51.157Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mathai
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Top%20Math%20AI%20this%20month
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev