56% — Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC
Leader: Matsumoto Yamaga FC at 56% · Polymarket 56% · 3 contracts · $27 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 14:48:23 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects the 55% probability that Matsumoto Yamaga FC will defeat Fukushima United FC in an upcoming match, with a 27% chance of a Fukushima victory and 18% chance of a draw. The relatively modest confidence in Matsumoto reflects competitive balance in Japanese football, where team form, head-to-head history, and recent league performance significantly influence outcomes. The match result will resolve this uncertainty on a specific date when the two teams compete. Key variables affecting the probability include current league standings, recent win-loss records, player availability, and historical performance in direct matchups. The low trading volume on these contracts suggests limited market depth, meaning new information or significant bets could shift prices noticeably. Investors would primarily monitor team news closer to kickoff, including injury reports or lineup changes, which could alter the implied probabilities substantially.

Key factors:
- Current league positions and points differential between Matsumoto Yamaga FC and Fukushima United FC
- Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for both teams, including goals scored and conceded
- Head-to-head historical record and performance patterns in previous direct matchups
- Known player injuries, suspensions, or roster absences affecting either team's lineup
- Home/away advantage factor, venue conditions, and weather forecast for match day

Contracts:
- Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC: Matsumoto Yamaga FC — 56¢ Polymarket $27 (weight 100%)
- Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC: Draw (Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC) — 22¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Fukushima United FC: Fukushima United FC — 21¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-25T07:20:12.261Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/matsumoto-yamaga-fc-vs-fukushima-united-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Matsumoto%20Yamaga%20FC%20vs.%20Fukushima%20United%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev