95% — Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 60 in June 2026
Leader: At least 40 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 4 contracts · $124K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 22:06:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates whether the Strait of Hormuz will see at least 60 vessel transits in a single day during June 2026. The 37-cent contract price implies roughly 37% probability, reflecting uncertainty about transit volumes through one of the world's critical shipping chokepoints. Daily transit counts depend on global oil demand, shipping schedules, geopolitical tensions affecting routing decisions, and seasonal patterns. The metric is specifically measured by IMF PortWatch data, which provides objective daily counts. Resolution depends entirely on whether PortWatch records a single day in June 2026 with 60 or more transits. Comparable historical data on typical Hormuz transit volumes and any announced disruptions or policy changes affecting the corridor would inform whether 60 represents a routine day or an unusually high volume.

Key factors:
- Historical daily transit baseline: typical Hormuz traffic patterns and whether 60 transits represents normal, elevated, or peak volume for that corridor
- Geopolitical risk events: any announced tensions, sanctions, or security incidents affecting shipping routes or vessel behavior during June 2026
- Global oil demand and shipping activity: seasonal demand fluctuations and whether June 2026 corresponds to high or low shipping periods
- IMF PortWatch methodology and data reliability: verification that the measurement criteria are consistent and that daily counts are publicly available and verifiable
- Alternative routing availability: whether economic or political factors would incentivize vessels to avoid the Strait, reducing daily call volumes below 60

Contracts:
- Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 40 in June 2026?: At least 40 — 95¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 16%)
- Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 50 in June 2026?: At least 50 — 87¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 14%)
- Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 60 in June 2026?: At least 60 — 53¢ Kalshi $40K (weight 32%)
- Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 80 in June 2026?: At least 80 — 11¢ Kalshi $47K (weight 38%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T21:20:49.412Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/maxshipshormuz
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20highest%20daily%20number%20of%20transit%20calls%20through%20the%20Strait%20of%20Hormuz%20as%20reported%20by%20the%20IMF%20PortWatch%20be%20at%20least%2060%20in%20June%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev